I agree.You don't add up the probabilities. If I flip a coin ten years in a row, is the probability of getting heads 500%? Think about it. Do you think a 65-year-old has a one-in-four chance of being dead by 74? That makes no sense.https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
The cumulative 10 year possibility of death from 65 to 74 years based on above tables is 25%
I made a mistake.
From the same tables :
Of the 100,000 people born:
77402 were alive at 65.
62376 were alive at 74.
77402- 62376 = 15026 died between the ages of 65 to 74.
15026/77402 = 19.4 % people died in those 10 years. ( not 25% as I mentioned earlier)
Statistics: Posted by ram — Fri May 15, 2026 11:27 pm — Replies 36 — Views 2233






